Spartans face another uphill battle in bout with Badgers
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 - Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Spartans continue their early- season trek through some of the most treacherous waters imaginable as a week after taking on the defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide, they head north to battle the 11th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers.
This is the second straight year that San Jose State has opened the season against two teams in the Top-25, and the Spartans last beat a ranked opponent in 2000 when they topped No. 9 TCU at home in a 27-24 final. The last time SJSU won against a ranked foe on the road was when it knocked off No. 9 Baylor in 1980, 30-22.
Last week's 48-3 shellacking at Alabama spoiled the head coaching debut of Mike McIntyre, who took over for the retired Dick Tomey.
Wisconsin is 1-0 on the young season after beating UNLV last Saturday, 41-21. It was the 26th straight non-conference victory for the Badgers, who will be looking to win their 15th straight home opener this weekend. Under current coach Bret Bielema, UW is 12-0 against non-league foes at home.
This game marks only the second meeting between these two schools in football, the first encounter going to the Badgers, 56-10, at Spartan Stadium on September 13, 1997.
The Spartans gained just 175 total yards in last week's dismantling at Alabama, as senior QB Jordan La Secla completed a mere 7-of-14 passes for 85 yards with an INT. The SJSU ground attack didn't fare much better, accounting for 89 yards on 3.1 ypc. Brandon Rutley finished with 52 yards on 13 totes, and the Spartans were limited to seven first downs, going a paltry 1-of-13 on third-down conversion attempts.
La Secla, while disappointed in the outcome, tried to be optimistic when asked about SJSU's effort on offense against one of the top defenses in the country, "I feel like we did some good things. We showed we had some big play capability and we moved the ball pretty well at times. The score wasn't what we really wanted it to look like. Other than that we answered some questions on offense that we can move the ball. The next step is getting it into the end zone."
Despite the absence of Heisman-winning RB Mark Ingram, the Alabama offense had a field day against the San Jose State defense, scoring on five of its eight first-half possessions and racking up 591 total yards for the game -- 257 rushing and 334 passing. The Crimson Tide averaged 8.3 yards per offensive play, converted 7-of-13 third-down chances and scored on 3-of-4 trips to the red zone.
Linebackers Tiuk Tuipulotu and Vince Buhagiar logged nine tackles apiece for the Spartans in the loss, while CB Peyton Thompson was credited with seven stops and three PBUs.
The Badgers controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in their 20-point win at UNLV last Saturday night. A year after leading the nation in time of possession, the Wisconsin offense held onto the ball for 38:19 in the opener, using a punishing ground attack to hammer the Rebels into submission.
Running backs John Clay and Montee Ball ran for two TDs each and combined with James White to post 261 rushing yards on the night, while QB Scott Tolzien completed 15-of-20 passes for 197 yards with an INT. In all, the Badgers racked up 475 yards of total offense to just 217 for UNLV.
Defensively, Wisconsin permitted the Rebels just 10 first downs with an average of 4.1 yards per offensive play. UNLV finished with 112 yards on the ground, snapping a streak of 10 games where the Badgers held the opposition below 100 yards rushing. They also made plenty of plays in the backfield, logging four sacks and six TFLs, picking up where they left off last season when they led the Big Ten Conference in both categories. The UW defense also got a score of its own when Aaron Henry returned a fumble 20 yards at the start of the third quarter.
Linebacker Jean St. Culme led the Badgers with seven tackles, while fellow backer Chris Borland made two of his five stops in the UNLV backfield. Defensive end J.J. Watt seemed to be all over the field, making four tackles, forcing the fumble that led to Henry's TD, and batting down three passes at the line of scrimmage.
Coach Bielema was pleased with the overall effort put forth by his defense, "My hat goes off to the defense because I thought they played well all day."
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its Pac-10 Conference slate against UCLA at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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