Azcardinaks Football Betting News

<< Miami Dolphins 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The million dollar question for the Dolphins involves the quarterback position. Joey Harrington was released, Daunte Culpepper cannot realistically be viewed as a reliable option, and Dan Marino does not appear ready to come

<< New York Jets 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jets could use some assistance in the secondary, where safety Kerry Rhodes is the only player that warrants special notation in the opposing scouting report. New York added a wealth of players to the front seven via free

<< New England Patriots 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Patriots have endured perpetual health problems in the secondary, particularly at safety, where Rodney Harrison has missed most of the last two years due to injury. If New England doesn't target secondary help with one of

<< Baltimore Ravens 2007 NFL Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ravens filled their most pressing offseason need by trading for running back Willis McGahee on March 8th, but following the defections of right tackle Tony Pashos (Jaguars), guard Edwin Mulitalo (released) and fullback Ov

Jacksonville Jaguars 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jaguars were done in last season largely due to injury problems on defense, so enhancing their base of talent on that side of the football will likely be the franchise's top draft-day goal. High-priced defensive end Reggi

San Diego Chargers 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chargers could end up with as many as six first-day picks, as the team would add a first- and third-rounder if another club signs away restricted free agent running back Michael Turner. The possibility of six more ready-t

Cleveland Browns 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Like the Dolphins, the Browns are a team with a draft status that will be impacted by what it chooses to do at the quarterback position in the coming weeks. Conventional wisdom suggests that Cleveland will add a veteran QB su

Denver Broncos 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Broncos are likely to be in the market for linebacker help, since middle man Al Wilson is being shopped in a trade and is set to be released if he is not dealt. After releasing the disappointing Courtney Brown, some assis

Betting Football

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.